Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 31.256226 34.985582 39.309609 44.779180 51.643811 6.016629e+01 71.881763
2025-04-13 27.267207 32.283180 38.717565 47.927947 61.463241 8.202428e+01 119.357519
2025-04-20 23.498070 28.824646 36.125419 47.533934 66.509495 1.010755e+02 186.607643
2025-04-27 21.094918 26.609310 34.583823 48.020631 73.113794 1.285972e+02 339.320033
2025-05-04 19.339816 24.948125 33.423499 48.665233 80.383040 1.667588e+02 813.922860
2025-05-11 17.881444 23.472501 32.221974 48.828116 86.875793 2.152932e+02 4322.077198
2025-05-18 16.529392 21.967373 30.693568 47.932884 90.549363 2.654698e+02 NaN
2025-05-25 15.575624 20.960031 29.825162 48.095154 97.253434 3.577847e+02 NaN
2025-06-01 14.687403 19.956618 28.808215 47.680708 102.247091 4.774639e+02 NaN
2025-06-08 13.877000 18.999911 27.744696 46.912739 105.842710 6.357394e+02 NaN
2025-06-15 13.187537 18.181559 26.832291 46.290403 109.797034 8.979714e+02 NaN
2025-06-22 12.608278 17.499487 26.093623 45.924476 114.763911 1.434454e+03 NaN
2025-06-29 11.958665 16.660996 24.990748 44.498162 114.766857 2.016670e+03 NaN
2025-07-06 11.802351 16.651678 25.479006 47.227380 136.855571 1.266063e+06 NaN
2025-07-13 11.337186 16.071507 24.779262 46.661847 142.054025 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.999138 15.691865 24.444647 47.045739 153.869031 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.705056 15.369952 24.194372 47.625525 168.592918 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 10.398215 15.005300 23.819341 47.761867 181.171365 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 10.037868 14.523519 23.155975 46.889066 184.812386 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.779401 14.213828 22.835037 47.040819 198.919106 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.499670 13.850357 22.368461 46.639131 207.732543 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.215223 13.464827 21.825993 45.897701 212.360381 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 8.958145 13.118861 21.347299 45.297034 218.463198 NaN NaN